Updated Monday, September 28, 2026 at 14:10 (New York time).
Afternoon update
- What Lagarde said: speaking to the European Parliament's Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee, the ECB President said the euro area will see higher inflation, but there are no signs yet that it is becoming embedded (second-round effects). She therefore sees measured rate hikes as still appropriate and cooled the market's most aggressive bets. She also warned that long-term rates have risen notably, which will slow growth more than projected in September.
- How the euro reacted: there was no surprise, so the pair barely moved. At 14:00 New York time (19:00 London) it trades at 1.1376, 4 pips above this morning's update, between support at 1.1364 (which held) and the 1.1381 pivot (not yet reclaimed). The 1-hour RSI is at 48: the market is waiting.
- What changes: Lagarde's message does not give the euro the push it needed for a real rebound. The pair remains in the dollar's hands, with the dollar index steady at 101.10 on oil and US yields. The levels and scenarios below still apply; the next test is Tuesday's JOLTS at 10:00 ET and another Lagarde speech at 07:00 ET.
EUR/USD today starts the week at 1.1372, 20 pips below Friday's close (1.1392). The dollar remains firm: oil is surging after Washington rejected Iran's proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and that reinforces bets on another Federal Reserve hike in October. The euro, however, is deeply oversold and has already rejected Friday's low this morning. ECB President Christine Lagarde speaks twice today.
Today at a glance
- Price: 1.1372, below the 20-day (1.1490), 50-day (1.1524) and 200-day (1.1593) averages. A clear downtrend on the daily and 4-hour charts (ADX 35 on both).
- Extreme oversold reading: daily RSI at 27 and stochastic at 7.5. At 06:00 ET the pair swept Friday's low (1.1368) and bounced with a 1-hour rejection candle.
- The dollar is in charge: the dollar index is at 101.11, near its recent high (101.26), with the US 10-year yield above 5% and Brent around $108.
Key levels
| Level | Price | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Resistance 3 | 1.1436 – 1.1442 | Last daily swing high and 1-hour 200-period average |
| Resistance 2 | 1.1399 – 1.1401 | Round number, highest-volume price of the last 24 hours and 4-hour high |
| Resistance 1 | 1.1382 – 1.1392 | Unfilled bearish gap from the open and Friday's close |
| Pivot | 1.1381 | Session average price: above it, the bounce gains strength |
| Current price | 1.1372 | — |
| Support 1 | 1.1364 – 1.1368 | Friday's low (already swept) and last daily support |
| Support 2 | 1.1339 | Daily lower Bollinger band |
| Support 3 | 1.1300 – 1.1325 | One average daily range (ATR ≈ 47 pips) and round number |
The pair's average daily range is about 47 pips, and much of it usually happens between 08:00 and 12:00 ET (13:00–17:00 London), when the London and New York sessions overlap. More in our guide to forex market hours.
What is moving it today
| Event | New York (ET) | London |
|---|---|---|
| Lagarde speech (ECB) | 09:30 | 14:30 |
| Second Lagarde speech | 10:00 | 15:00 |
- Lagarde: euro-area inflation is expected at 3.5%–3.8% on Friday. If Lagarde opens the door to tighter ECB policy, the euro would get its best support in weeks. A cautious tone would leave the pair at the mercy of the dollar.
- Oil: Brent near $108 raises energy costs in Europe and the US, but the market reads it mainly as "more Fed". That is why the dollar is winning.
- Rest of the week: JOLTS and consumer confidence on Tuesday (10:00 ET), PCE on Wednesday (08:30), ISM on Thursday (10:00), euro-area CPI and nonfarm payrolls on Friday (05:00 and 08:30). Full details in NFP week and the economic calendar today.
Scenarios
Bearish scenario (main case): if the pair loses 1.1364 on a 1-hour close, the next target is 1.1339 and then 1.1300–1.1325. Most likely if oil keeps climbing or if Lagarde avoids any commitment.
Bullish scenario (technical bounce): the sweep of Friday's low and the daily oversold reading favor a bounce if the pair reclaims 1.1381. The first target would be 1.1392–1.1401; a break above 1.1401 would open the way to 1.1436–1.1442.
Invalidation: the short-term downtrend would be in doubt on a 4-hour close above 1.1401.
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Frequently asked questions
Why is EUR/USD falling today?
Because of the dollar. Oil is rising after the US rejected Iran's proposal, which stokes inflation fears, and markets see about a 66–70% chance of another Fed hike in October. High yields attract capital to the dollar.
What could Lagarde say that would move the euro?
Any hint about raising rates to fight inflation. If she confirms the ECB is worried about energy prices, the euro could bounce; if she stresses caution because of growth, the dollar will stay in control.
Is EUR/USD oversold?
Yes: the daily RSI is 27, below 30. That is not a buy signal on its own, because in strong trends price can stay oversold for days, but it warns that a bounce is more likely and that selling at the lows carries more risk than usual.
