Risk reward and breakeven win rate calculator
Compare entry, stop and target, including extra costs. Calculate the potential reward-to-risk ratio and the win rate needed to break even.
Use a decimal point. Initial values are an example, not a live quote.
Distances and costs in this tool use price units, not money or pips.
Formula and example
Net reward-to-risk = (target distance − costs) ÷ (stop distance + costs). Breakeven win rate = 100 ÷ (1 + net reward-to-risk).
Entry 100, stop 95, target 110: risk 5 to seek 10. Reward-to-risk is 2 and theoretical breakeven is 33.33%. Adding 1 price unit of costs changes it to 9/6 = 1.5 and 40%.
How to interpret the result
- For a buy, the stop must be below entry and the target above it; reverse these for a sell.
- Only add costs that are not already reflected in prices. Use the same price units for all inputs.
- Breakeven assumes constant winning and losing outcomes. Partial exits, unfilled orders and intermediate closes change the relationship.
- This is not the probability of winning the next trade. A high reward-to-risk ratio alone does not establish a statistical edge.