A good Bitcoin analysis starts with context: as of October 3, 2026, BTC/USD trades near 84,600 dollars, in a long-term uptrend on the daily chart but capped below resistance at 87,400, which it brushed on Friday with the US jobs report (high of 87,252). It is driven by global liquidity, ETF flows, the Nasdaq and the halving cycle.
In this guide we go through those four drivers and then move to the chart to show how they translate into support, resistance and scenarios.
The four drivers of the Bitcoin price
1. Global liquidity and monetary policy
Bitcoin behaves like a risk asset that is sensitive to the amount of dollars in circulation. When the Federal Reserve cuts rates or adds liquidity, capital seeks returns in tech stocks and crypto. When the Fed is tight and the dollar strengthens, Bitcoin tends to suffer because cash becomes more attractive.
That is exactly today's backdrop: the Fed raised rates to 3.75–4.00% on September 16 and the US 10-year yield touched the 5.3% area this week, its highest since 2002. The fact that Bitcoin holds near 84,600 against that headwind says a lot about underlying demand. For a trader in New York, London or Mexico City, this means watching every Fed meeting and every US inflation release, because the impact arrives within minutes, around the clock. We explain it in our US inflation guide.
2. Spot Bitcoin ETF flows
Since their approval in the US in January 2024, inflows and outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs have become one of the most closely watched gauges. Days with strong net inflows tend to coincide with sustained rallies, and consecutive outflows often precede consolidation or corrections. The data is published daily and is worth checking next to the chart, because it explains much of the underlying demand.
3. The correlation with the Nasdaq 100
Bitcoin and the Nasdaq 100 have moved in the same direction for years during phases of risk appetite or fear. The Nasdaq 100 closed this week at 30,808 points, very close to its daily resistance (30,820) and in an uptrend: a backdrop that usually supports Bitcoin.
The practical application is timing. The Wall Street open, at 9:30 a.m. New York time, is 2:30 p.m. in London. That window concentrates much of the volume that drags Bitcoin along, even though crypto never closes. Note: from November 1, when the US switches to standard time, the open will be at 2:30 p.m. in London again after a one-week gap (from October 25 to 31, while only Europe has changed its clocks, it falls at 1:30 p.m.). We cover how to trade these indices in Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 from Latin America.
4. The halving and programmed supply
Roughly every four years, the block reward for miners is cut in half. The last halving was in April 2024 and the next is expected in 2028. It does not move the price instantly, but it slows the pace of new supply. Historically, Bitcoin's strongest bull cycles have unfolded 12 to 18 months after a halving, alongside periods of greater global liquidity. It is a background factor, not an entry signal.
How to read the Bitcoin chart as a trader
These are the BTC/USD technical readings as of October 3, 2026 (11:00 UTC):
| Timeframe | Price | RSI | ADX | Support | Resistance | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daily | 84,620 | 63.4 | 42.1 | 82,812 | 87,389 | Strong uptrend |
| 4 hours | 84,620 | 50.8 | 25.7 | 83,828 | 84,919 | Uptrend |
| 1 hour | 84,620 | 45.1 | 15.0 | 84,483 | 84,732 | Sideways |
What each indicator says
RSI (relative strength index): at 63.4 on the daily chart, below overbought territory (70). On the 1-hour chart it is at 45: neutral, with no momentum.
ADX (trend strength): a daily ADX of 42 confirms a strong directional trend. On the 1-hour chart, an ADX of 15 shows the short term is ranging, typical of a low-volume weekend. We explain it in our RSI guide.
Moving averages: on the daily chart, price is above the 20-day (82,637), 50-day (78,563) and 200-day (73,729) averages, the classic order of an uptrend. Today's daily candle is a doji: indecision after the rejection at 87,252.
ATR (volatility): the average daily range is 2,282 dollars (2.7% of the price) and the 1-hour range is 329 dollars. Use it to size your stop.
Technical scenarios
Bullish scenario: as long as Bitcoin holds above daily support at 82,812 and the 20-day average (82,637), the structure favors fresh attempts at 87,389. A daily close above it would open the way to the upper daily Bollinger band at 88,833. Invalidation: a daily close below 82,637.
Bearish scenario: losing 82,812 on a daily close would open a correction toward the 50-day average at 78,563. Even higher US yields or hawkish Fed minutes on Wednesday the 7th would favor it. Invalidation: a daily close above 87,389.
Neither scenario is a buy or sell recommendation: they are reference frameworks that each trader must validate with their own analysis and risk.
Risk management when trading Bitcoin
With a daily range of 2.7% of the price, Bitcoin calls for more conservative risk management than currency pairs. Some practical rules:
- Define risk in money, not in coins. Decide what percentage of your account you risk per trade (the 1% rule is a good reference) and turn it into an ATR-based stop, not a round number.
- Be careful with leverage. The same ATR that creates opportunities can liquidate a leveraged position in minutes: an average move of 329 dollars in an hour is almost 0.4% of the price.
- Watch the spread and low-liquidity hours. Bitcoin trades all weekend, but with less volume; spreads widen and slippage increases. We explain it in spread, swap and slippage.
- Cross-check Bitcoin with the Nasdaq. It tells you whether a move is specific to crypto or part of a broader risk-on or risk-off swing.
Frequently asked questions
What is Bitcoin technical analysis and where do I start?
It is the study of the chart with indicators such as RSI, ADX, moving averages and support and resistance to identify the trend and entry or exit points. Start with the daily chart to see the underlying trend, then drop to the 4-hour or 1-hour chart to fine-tune.
How does the halving affect the Bitcoin price?
It halves the new supply of bitcoins roughly every four years. It does not trigger an immediate move, but historically it has preceded rallies over the following 12 to 18 months, together with institutional demand and global liquidity. The next one is expected in 2028.
Why does Bitcoin move like the Nasdaq?
Because investors treat both as risk assets that are sensitive to liquidity and interest rates. When risk appetite is high, capital flows into tech stocks and crypto at the same time; when fear dominates, both tend to fall together.
How much capital should I risk when trading Bitcoin?
There is no universal figure. A prudent reference is to risk no more than 1–2% of the account per trade and to size positions to the ATR of the timeframe you trade, because Bitcoin moves far more than most currency pairs.
