CPI and PCE measure consumer price changes using different coverage, weights and methods. Compare the same reference period and distinguish headline from core and monthly from annual changes. This guide does not maintain a live table of 2026 inflation results; check the latest issuer documents for current readings.
Which source answers which question?
| Measure | Issuer and reference | What to check |
|---|---|---|
| CPI | BLS CPI releases | Month covered, seasonally adjusted monthly change, annual change and revisions |
| PCE price index | BEA Personal Income and Outlays | Month covered, headline or excluding food and energy, and revisions |
CPI generally covers out-of-pocket spending by urban consumers. PCE has broader coverage, including some spending on households' behalf, and uses a chain-type formula. Different weights and coverage mean the two measures need not agree. Read the issuers' CPI questions and answers and PCE price-index explanation.
Publication date is not the reference month
A release published in one month can describe prices in the previous month. Confirm the BLS CPI schedule and BEA schedule, then open the corresponding document. A calendar entry is not itself the released result. An annual rate also does not describe only the latest month's movement.
Reproduce a monthly versus annual calculation
Consider a hypothetical index of 100 a year ago, 102 in the previous month and 103 now. These are educational values, not official inflation data.
| Comparison | Calculation | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Month on month | (103 / 102 − 1) × 100 | About 0.98% |
| Year on year | (103 / 100 − 1) × 100 | 3.00% |
Neither result is obtained by multiplying the other by twelve. This arithmetic illustrates the comparison; it does not replicate the statistical agencies' full index construction or seasonal adjustment.
Why a surprise does not determine a trade
A result above an attributed forecast may affect rate expectations, but revisions, composition, positioning and information already priced in also matter. Do not infer that gold or the dollar must move in one direction. Observe the market reaction and compare the same instrument, timeframe and horizon.
Use the calendar reference guide, the chart analyzer and position size calculator for separate tasks. Position size requires user-selected risk and contract specifications; an inflation number cannot determine it.
