Neither barrier was observed in the 23 complete M5 candles reviewed for this historical gold case. That does not establish a trade result or resolve every moment of the two-hour window. Simulation counts describe model-generated paths, not real-world probabilities or verified accuracy.
Parameters and timing
AIMPATFX's Spanish source case uses an XAUUSD reference dated October 19, 2026, 18:15:27 UTC, with a horizon ending at 20:15:27 UTC. These are historical timestamps.
| Parameter | Upward branch | Downward branch |
|---|---|---|
| Reference activation zone | 4,147.64 | 4,147.64 |
| Invalidation | 4,136.40 | 4,152.50 |
| Objective | 4,159.00 | 4,136.80 |
| Chart interval | M5 | M5 |
| Horizon | 2 hours | 2 hours |
Prices belong to the source feed instrument, not a universal gold quotation or an execution guarantee. AIM placed or modified no trades.
Simulation counts and a reproducible check
Each branch activated in 4,629 of 5,000 simulated paths. In the upward branch, 601 reached the objective first, 796 reached invalidation first and 3,232 reached neither barrier: 601 + 796 + 3,232 = 4,629. In the downward branch, the corresponding counts were 780, 2,260 and 1,589: 780 + 2,260 + 1,589 = 4,629.
The objective and invalidation distances differ between branches. These counts therefore do not compare equivalent barrier geometries or establish predictive superiority. No branch is classified as a winning trade.
What the later observation covers
The source selected MT5 M5 candles starting after 18:15:27 and ending before 20:15:27 UTC: 23 complete candles, with opening times from 18:20 through 20:10. Their combined low was 4,141.47 and high 4,149.28, inside both branches' barriers.
Partial candles at the window's edges were excluded. Ticks, activation, spread, commissions, margin and slippage were not reconstructed. If two barriers occur within one candle, its high and low alone cannot reveal their order.
Source: the supplied AIMPATFX Spanish case, published October 19, 2026, citing internal simulation records and MT5 OHLC. Those underlying records remain pending independent editorial inspection. MetaTrader 5 bar documentation explains historical data structure; it does not certify this case.
How AIM helps
AIM is AIMPATFX's quantitative artificial intelligence. AIM Market organizes bias, scenarios, invalidation and conditional objectives; AIM Audit reviews accounts read-only; AIM Risk calculates mathematical size using risk chosen by the user. Simulations are expressed as X of N scenarios. Decision and risk remain the user's.
Explore the chart analyzer, methodology in Spanish, gold analysis guide and account audit guide.
Frequently asked questions
Does M5 mean a five-minute horizon?
No. M5 is candle granularity; this case's horizon was two hours.
Does neither barrier mean a successful trade?
No. Execution and a complete-window outcome were not established.
Are simulation frequencies real probabilities?
No. They are counts under model assumptions.
Editorial author: AIMPATFX. English adaptation prepared October 19, 2026. Educational historical case; currencies and CFDs involve risk of loss.
