US durable goods orders were essentially flat in August (−0.02%), when the market expected a drop. But the most important part of the report released on Friday, September 25 is on another line: core capital goods orders, the best gauge of business investment, rose 1.6%, almost three times the forecast.
The data came out at 08:30 ET (13:30 in London). Here is what it says, why it matters ahead of a possible new Fed rate hike and where the dollar, the euro and gold stand.
Durable goods orders: the August data
| Indicator (August 2026) | Actual | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total orders (m/m) | 0.0% (−0.02%) | between −3.4% and −0.3% | +0.9% (revised from +1.1%) |
| Orders ex-transportation | +0.3% | +0.6% | +0.7% |
| Core capital goods (ex-defense, ex-aircraft) | +1.6% | +0.6% | +0.6% |
| Core capital goods shipments | +0.6% | +0.8% | — |
| Transportation equipment | −0.6% | — | — |
Total orders came to $338.6 billion. Forecasts ranged from −3.4% to −0.3%, because July had been inflated by aircraft orders, and the print beat all of them.
Why the headline is misleading: the weight of aircraft
The flat total is explained almost entirely by transportation, which fell 0.6%:
- Civilian aircraft orders fell 4.3%, after rising 12% in July. It is the most volatile part of the report.
- Motor vehicles fell 0.6%.
That is why analysts focus more on orders ex-transportation, which rose 0.3% and have now risen for 17 months in a row. That is below the expected +0.6%, but it confirms that manufacturing is not slowing down.
What matters: business investment remains strong
The key figure is core capital goods, that is, excluding defense and aircraft. It reflects how much companies plan to spend on machinery and equipment:
- It rose 1.6% in August, versus 0.6% expected.
- Year over year it is up 14.1%, the fastest pace since August 2021.
- By component, machinery rose 1.1%, electrical equipment another 1.1% and computers and related products 1.5%. That fits the boom in data-center and artificial-intelligence investment in the US.
- Unfilled orders grew 0.6% to a record $1.61 trillion.
Shipments of these goods, which count directly toward GDP, rose 0.6% and have risen for seven straight months. In other words, equipment investment will keep adding to third-quarter growth.
What it means for the Fed and the dollar
The backdrop is delicate. The Fed raised rates on September 16 to a 3.75%–4.00% range, and the market is debating whether it will do so again on October 28. The 10-year Treasury yield hit its highest level since 2007 this week (above 5.2%), pushed by inflation, oil still above $90 and the budget deficit.
Solid investment data reinforces the idea of an economy that can withstand high rates, and that gives the Fed arguments to keep tightening. On Friday, however, oil mattered more: talks between the US and Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz lowered crude prices and gave bonds some relief. Rate futures went from pricing more than a 75% chance of an October hike on Thursday to around 66% on Friday.
Result: the dollar stayed at two-month highs. According to AIMPATFX market data, at 18:00 UTC:
| Instrument | 11:00 UTC | 18:00 UTC | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dollar index (DXY) | 101.01 | 101.02 | Stable at two-month highs |
| EUR/USD | 1.1400 | 1.1391 | Daily RSI at 28.9 (oversold) |
| USD/MXN | 17.673 | 17.715 | The peso gave back its morning relief |
| USD/COP | 3,354 | 3,320 | The Colombian peso recovers some ground on the truce |
| USD/CLP | 965.3 | 962.0 | Slight relief |
| Gold (XAU/USD) | — | 4,283 | At its daily support |
The Mexican peso strengthened in the morning, to around 17.66, but ended the afternoon back near 17.71. For the full picture of the week in Latin American currencies, see our analysis of why the dollar is rising against the pesos.
Key levels and scenarios
These scenarios are analysis, not buy or sell recommendations.
EUR/USD
- If the dollar stays strong: a loss of 1.1376 (last daily support) would open the door to 1.1360, the lower Bollinger band area. Invalidation: a daily close above 1.1436.
- If the dollar corrects: with the daily RSI oversold, reclaiming 1.1400 and 1.1436 would allow a technical bounce toward the 20-session average (1.1503). Invalidation: a close below 1.1360.
Gold (XAU/USD)
Gold trades at $4,283, right on its daily support (4,282) and below its 20-session (4,344) and 200-session (4,399) averages. It is on track to end the week down nearly 2%, weighed down by the strong dollar and high yields.
- Bearish scenario: a close below 4,282 would keep the pressure on while bond yields stay near 5.2%. Invalidation: a recovery of 4,344.
- Bullish scenario: if the market lowers the odds of an October hike, gold could return toward 4,344 and the 4,382 resistance. Invalidation: a daily close below 4,282.
For the metal's underlying drivers, see our guide to the gold price in 2026.
What comes next week
Next week is all about jobs, and durable goods take a back seat:
- Monday 28: speeches by ECB President Christine Lagarde (09:30 and 10:00 ET), with a direct impact on EUR/USD.
- Midweek: JOLTS job openings, ADP private payrolls and, on Thursday, October 1, the ISM manufacturing index, which takes over from this report as the industry gauge.
- Friday, October 2: September jobs report (NFP) at 08:30 ET. It is the big test before the October 28 Fed meeting. Review how to prepare in our NFP guide.
If you want to check how this data affects the pairs you trade, ask AIM, the AIMPATFX AI advisor. You can request the updated analysis of EUR/USD, gold or USD/MXN, or send it a screenshot of your chart.
Frequently asked questions
What are durable goods orders?
A monthly report from the US Commerce Department that measures new orders for products meant to last more than three years, such as machinery, computers, vehicles or aircraft. It is released near the end of the month at 08:30 ET and anticipates production and investment.
Why do traders focus on the ex-transportation figure?
Because aircraft orders are very irregular: one large contract can send the total soaring or sinking in a single month. Excluding transportation, and above all in capital goods excluding defense and aircraft, you get a clearer view of the real trend in business investment.
Does strong durable goods data lift the dollar?
It usually supports it, because it signals a strong economy and a Fed with fewer reasons to ease. This Friday, oil and bonds mattered more, and the dollar held steady at two-month highs.
