NFP week is here: on Friday, October 2, the US September jobs report is released, and before that the calendar brings PCE inflation, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) decision, JOLTS job openings and the ISM manufacturing index. All in a week that also closes the third quarter on Wednesday, September 30, when large funds rebalance their portfolios.
The backdrop is demanding. The Federal Reserve raised rates on September 16 for the first time since 2023, to a 3.75%–4.00% range, and its dot plot points to another hike before year-end. The 10-year Treasury yield ended the week near 5.10%, its highest level since 2007, and the dollar touched two-month highs. Against that backdrop, every jobs and inflation release is read with one question in mind: will the Fed hike again in October?
The market is closed right now: these are the levels the week opens with and the time of each release.
How the market closes ahead of NFP week
Friday, September 25 closing prices:
| Asset | Close | Technical context (daily) |
|---|---|---|
| Gold (XAU/USD) | 4,284.95 | Below the 20, 50 and 200-day averages; RSI 44.6 |
| EUR/USD | 1.1392 | Strong downtrend; RSI 29.1 (oversold) |
| Dollar index (DXY) | 101.00 | Strong uptrend; RSI 67.0 |
| S&P 500 | 7,745.2 | Bullish, near resistance at 7,758 |
| USD/MXN | 17.6725 | RSI 75.4 (overbought), above the upper Bollinger Band |
| AUD/USD | 0.7026 | Bearish on the 4-hour chart; just above 0.7017 |
Gold lost more than 2% on the week, weighed down by bond yields. The euro is oversold on the daily chart, which does not guarantee a rebound but does show the decline is already stretched. If you want to understand why gold and the dollar tend to move in opposite directions, we explain it in the gold–dollar correlation.
Day-by-day agenda (New York and London time)
| Day | New York (ET) | London | Country | Release | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 28 | 09:30 | 14:30 | Euro area | Lagarde speech (ECB) | — | — |
| Tue 29 | 00:30 | 05:30 | Australia | RBA rate decision | 4.60% | 4.35% |
| Tue 29 | 10:00 | 15:00 | US | JOLTS job openings (August) | ~7.1–7.2M | 7.27M |
| Tue 29 | 10:00 | 15:00 | US | Consumer confidence (Conference Board) | 89.4 | 89.4 |
| Tue 29 | 21:30 | 02:30 (Wed) | Australia | Monthly CPI (August) | 4.1% y/y | 3.5% y/y |
| Tue 29 | 21:00 | 02:00 (Wed) | China | Official manufacturing PMI | 50.2 | 49.8 |
| Wed 30 | 02:00 | 07:00 | UK | Final Q2 GDP | 0.4% q/q | 0.4% q/q |
| Wed 30 | 08:15 | 13:15 | US | ADP private payrolls (September) | ~70,000 | — |
| Wed 30 | 08:30 | 13:30 | US | Core PCE (August) | 0.3% m/m | 0.2% m/m |
| Wed 30 | 08:30 | 13:30 | US | Final Q2 GDP | 1.5% | 1.5% |
| Wed 30 | 19:50 | 00:50 (Thu) | Japan | Tankan survey (Q3) | 23 | 22 |
| Thu 1 | 10:00 | 15:00 | US | ISM manufacturing (September) | 55.0 | 54.6 |
| Fri 2 | 05:00 | 10:00 | Euro area | Flash CPI (September) | 3.5%–3.8% | 3.2% |
| Fri 2 | 08:30 | 13:30 | US | Nonfarm payrolls (NFP) | 98,000–100,000 | 162,000 |
| Fri 2 | 08:30 | 13:30 | US | Unemployment rate | 4.1% | 4.1% |
| Fri 2 | 08:30 | 13:30 | US | Average hourly earnings | 0.3% m/m | 0.3% m/m |
You can find each morning's agenda, updated daily, in today's economic calendar.
The four releases that move the week
1. RBA: everything points to a hike to 4.60%
The market prices a probability of more than 90% that the RBA raises rates by 25 basis points to 4.60%, and Australia's four big banks expect it. Underlying inflation (trimmed mean) stands at 3.6%, above the 2–3% target, pushed by energy and housing.
What to watch: with the hike priced in, the statement is what will move AUD/USD. A tone that leaves the door open to more hikes could support the Aussie, which arrives weak (0.7026, with support at 0.7017 and resistance at 0.7045 and 0.7108). A "we hike, but we pause" message could accelerate the decline. Australia's CPI the next day (forecast 4.1%) will test that message.
2. PCE: the inflation gauge the Fed watches
PCE is the Federal Reserve's preferred price index. Core PCE is expected to rise 0.3% in August (3.3% year on year) and headline 0.4% (3.7% year on year). Those figures are far from the 2% target, and the Fed itself raised its 2026 headline PCE projection to 3.7% in September.
A core reading of 0.4% or more would strengthen bets on another hike in October, which traders already put at around two-thirds. That would be bad news for gold and supportive for the dollar.
3. ISM manufacturing: industry at its best in years
S&P Global's flash manufacturing PMI for September jumped to 57.0, a 52-month high. The ISM, forecast at 55.0, would confirm an economy that is withstanding high rates. Watch the prices paid sub-index: a strong rise would reinforce the persistent-inflation narrative.
4. NFP: jobs set the tone for October
Consensus expects about 100,000 payrolls, versus 162,000 in August, with unemployment steady at 4.1% and wages rising 0.3% month on month (3.2% year on year). The three-month average is around 71,000 jobs, so a figure near 100,000 would be solid.
In this context, average hourly earnings may matter more than the headline: the Fed is worried about broad, persistent inflation, and wages are a central part of it. Review how to trade this release in our NFP guide.
Key levels for the week
| Asset | Support | Resistance |
|---|---|---|
| Gold | 4,282 · 4,234 | 4,303 · 4,344 · 4,382 |
| EUR/USD | 1.1391 · 1.1360 | 1.1399 · 1.1436 · 1.1503 |
| Dollar index | 100.99 · 100.54 | 101.20 · 101.32 |
| USD/MXN | 17.60 · 17.49 | 17.68 · 17.76 |
The levels come from recent highs and lows, moving averages and Bollinger Bands on the daily and 4-hour charts.
Scenarios
Strong-dollar scenario (hot data). Core PCE of 0.4% or more, ISM above 55 with rising prices paid, and NFP above 150,000 or wages at 0.4%. The market would treat an October hike as almost certain: the DXY would try to clear 101.32, EUR/USD would break 1.1360 and gold could head for 4,234. Invalidation: a daily EUR/USD close above 1.1436.
Relief scenario (lukewarm data). PCE at 0.2%, ISM below 54 and NFP below 70,000 with moderate wages. Bond yields would fall, the euro could rebound from oversold levels toward 1.1436–1.1503 and gold could recover 4,344. Invalidation: a gold close below 4,234.
In USD/MXN, overbought conditions (RSI 75) make a pause more likely if the data disappoint, but the trend remains bullish while it holds above 17.49. We analyze it in the dollar against the Mexican peso.
How to prepare
- Reduce your position size before the 08:30 ET (13:30 London) releases. Spreads widen at the moment of publication and slippage is common.
- Avoid entering in the first few seconds: the first move after NFP frequently reverses.
- Quarter-end: fund rebalancing can cause moves without news on Tuesday and Wednesday.
- Calculate your risk before entering. If your rule is not clear yet, start with the 1% rule.
If you want to review your scenario before each release, you can send a screenshot of your chart to AIM, AIMPATFX's AI advisor, which analyzes it with current prices and indicators.
Frequently asked questions
What time is the October 2, 2026 NFP released?
At 12:30 UTC: 08:30 in New York, 13:30 in London and 14:30 in Central Europe.
What is expected from September's NFP?
Consensus is around 100,000 payrolls (versus 162,000 in August), with unemployment at 4.1% and wages up 0.3% month on month and 3.2% year on year.
Why is PCE so important this week?
Because it is the inflation measure the Fed uses for its 2% target. With the Fed just resuming hikes and the market unsure whether it will repeat in October, a high PCE reading could tip the balance.
Will the RBA raise rates on September 29?
The market sees it as almost certain: a probability of more than 90% of a hike to 4.60%. The Australian dollar's reaction will depend more on the statement than on the decision itself.
