US initial jobless claims rose to 197,000 in the release of Thursday, September 24, 2026, above the 189,000 expected and the previous week's 196,000. It is a slightly softer reading than expected, but still very low: the dollar did not fall, because the market is still focused on inflation and on a Fed that has just raised rates.
Update (October 1, 2026): a week later, claims fell to 197,000 from 198,000 (revised), the lowest since July, and continuing claims dropped to 1.70 million. We covered it alongside the ISM in September 2026 ISM manufacturing.
What are initial jobless claims?
They count the number of people who filed for unemployment benefits for the first time in the US during the latest week. The Labor Department publishes them every Thursday at 08:30 New York time (13:30 London). It is the most frequent jobs indicator there is, which is why the Fed and traders use it as a near real-time thermometer.
Unlike the nonfarm payrolls report (NFP), which comes once a month, claims give a weekly reading. A higher-than-expected figure suggests more layoffs; a lower one, a firm labor market.
The data: 197,000 vs 189,000 expected
| Item | Figure |
|---|---|
| Actual (September 24, 2026) | 197,000 |
| Forecast | 189,000 |
| Previous | 196,000 |
The figure beat the forecast by 8,000 claims and almost matched the previous week. That is a meaningful miss for this indicator, but the level is still very low by historical standards: there is no sign of a wave of layoffs.
What does it mean for the Fed?
Not much on its own. In September 2026 the Fed raised rates to curb energy-driven inflation, and its debate is whether another hike is needed, not whether to cut. A slightly softer jobs reading takes a little pressure off, but the Fed rarely reacts to a single weekly print: what matters is the trend and, above all, inflation.
For the market to start pricing a less hawkish Fed, it would take several weeks of rising claims, a weak NFP and easing inflation.
How did the dollar, gold and indices react?
In theory, a weaker-than-expected jobs reading weakens the dollar, supports gold and lowers bond yields. On September 24 the market did not follow that script: rising bond yields and existing positioning mattered more.
| Asset (September 24, 2026) | Price | Reading |
|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | 1.1368 | Strong downtrend (1-hour ADX at 60) and daily RSI at 25, oversold |
| Gold (XAU/USD) | $4,255 | Downtrend (1-hour ADX at 37), not behaving as a safe haven |
| USD/JPY | 158.97 | The dollar rises against the yen, with RSI at 68 |
| S&P 500 | 7,677 | Selling pressure (1-hour ADX at 54) |
EUR/USD
The pair traded below its 20-, 50- and 200-period moving averages on the 1-hour chart, with a bearish engulfing candle. Support at 1.1362 and resistance at 1.1399. Losing 1.1364 opened the door to new lows; reclaiming 1.1402 (the 50-period average) cancelled the short-term bearish bias. Current levels are in EUR/USD today.
Gold
Gold did not act as a safe haven: RSI at 37 and price below its 1-hour moving averages. Support at 4,244 and resistance at 4,295; as long as it did not reclaim the 20-period average (4,276), the short-term bias stayed bearish. Current levels are in gold price today.
How to trade when the market does not react "as it should"
When price ignores a release, risk management matters even more:
- Do not trade against trends with an ADX above 50 without a clear reversal signal.
- Define your invalidation before entering and respect it.
- Size your position for the day's volatility with the 1% rule.
Frequently asked questions
What does it mean when jobless claims rise more than expected?
That more people than expected filed for unemployment benefits for the first time. It signals that the labor market is cooling a little more than forecast, although a single week does not make a trend.
Does weak jobs data always weaken the dollar?
No. In theory it lowers expectations of high rates, but other factors can matter more: bond yields, risk appetite or what is expected from the next Fed meeting. On September 24, 2026 the dollar rose despite the data.
How does this data affect Fed decisions?
It is one more piece of its employment and inflation mandate. With inflation high, the Fed watches prices more than a single week of claims; only a sustained rise in claims would change its tone.
What is the difference between jobless claims and NFP?
Claims are published weekly and measure new unemployment filings; NFP is monthly and measures the jobs created across the whole economy. They complement each other, but NFP usually moves the market much more.
