Updated Monday, September 28, 2026 at 14:10 (New York time).
Afternoon update
- The pressure continues: at 14:00 New York time gold trades at $4,134, $21 below this morning's update and about $151 (−3.5%) below Friday's close. It has lost the first support (4,140); the next one is the 4,099–4,100 area, the last support on the daily chart.
- What's moving it: there was no US data. Lagarde (ECB) said euro-area inflation will rise but is not yet becoming embedded, and that long-term rates have risen notably: the market took it without surprise and the dollar index holds at 101.10. The brake on gold is US Treasury yields, still rising on bets of another Fed hike in October, even though oil has pared its morning gains (WTI hit $96.5 and is now around $92.6).
- What changes: nothing essential. The bearish scenario stays active while price fails to reclaim 4,166–4,179, and the daily RSI (35) is not yet oversold. Tonight the Reserve Bank of Australia decides (00:30 ET Tuesday), and Tuesday brings JOLTS and consumer confidence (10:00 ET).
The gold price today is falling hard at the start of the week: XAU/USD trades at $4,155 per ounce, about $130 (−3.0%) below Friday's close (4,284.95). It has lost the 4,200 area and is at its lowest level in roughly seven weeks. The trigger is not gold itself but oil: Washington rejected Iran's proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, crude jumped more than 4%, and the market is once again pricing more inflation and more Federal Reserve rate hikes.
Today at a glance
- 3% drop at the open: from 4,284.95 to 4,155. Price is below the daily lower Bollinger band (4,200) and far from its 20-day (4,326), 50-day (4,330) and 200-day (4,399) averages.
- Oil is the driver: Brent is up more than 4%, to around $108. Higher oil means higher inflation, and markets see roughly a 66–70% chance of another Fed hike in October. The US 10-year yield closed Friday at 5.17%, near its highest since 2007.
- Deeply oversold short term: the 1-hour RSI is at 23 and the 4-hour RSI at 26. The trend is down on every timeframe, but after moves like this technical bounces are common and sharp.
Key levels
| Level | Price (USD) | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Resistance 3 | 4,257 – 4,266 | Bearish order block from Sunday night and 4-hour 20-period average (4,258) |
| Resistance 2 (pivot) | 4,194 – 4,204 | Session average price (4,194), daily lower Bollinger band (4,200) and 1-hour 20-period average: former support, now a ceiling |
| Resistance 1 | 4,166 – 4,179 | Unfilled bearish gap from early this morning |
| Current price | 4,155 | — |
| Support 1 | 4,140 | Session low on the 15-minute chart |
| Support 2 | 4,099 – 4,100 | Last daily swing support and round number |
| Support 3 | ≈ 4,059 | One average daily range (ATR ≈ $97) below the current price |
Gold's average daily range has climbed to about $97. With that volatility, a $20 stop is close to noise: size your position with the 1% rule before thinking about direction.
What is moving it today
- Iran and oil: Washington's rejection of Iran's seven-day plan to reopen Hormuz sent crude back to recent highs (Brent ≈ $108, WTI ≈ $96). In this cycle, expensive oil hurts gold more through inflation and rates than it helps it as a safe haven.
- Rates and bonds: with the Fed at 3.75%–4.00% after the September 16 hike and the 10-year yield above 5%, holding gold (which pays no interest) is costly. Silver is falling even more (−2.6%) and the other precious metals about 2%.
- Today's agenda: the only major events are two speeches by ECB President Christine Lagarde:
| Event | New York (ET) | London |
|---|---|---|
| Lagarde speech (ECB) | 09:30 | 14:30 |
| Second Lagarde speech | 10:00 | 15:00 |
| RBA rate decision (Australia) | 00:30 Tuesday | 05:30 Tuesday |
A hawkish Lagarde could weaken the dollar a little and give gold some relief. But the big events come later in the week: PCE on Wednesday and nonfarm payrolls on Friday, both at 08:30 ET. We cover them in NFP week and in the economic calendar today.
Scenarios
Bearish scenario (main case while below 4,200): if it breaks 4,140, the next target is 4,099–4,100 and, if oil keeps rising, 4,059. All timeframes are aligned lower and price sits below the session's average value.
Bullish scenario (technical bounce): oversold 1-hour and 4-hour readings favor a bounce if price reclaims 4,166–4,179. A move above 4,200 would put gold back into its previous range, targeting 4,257–4,266. That bounce would most likely need a pullback in oil or signs of relief in the Middle East.
Invalidation: today's bearish scenario is in doubt on a 4-hour close above 4,204.
Why does gold sometimes rise with the dollar and sometimes not? We explain it in the gold and dollar correlation. And if you have your own chart, send it to AIM, AIMPATFX's AI advisor: it will tell you what confirms and what invalidates each scenario on your timeframe.
Frequently asked questions
Why is gold falling today if there is tension in the Middle East?
Because the tension is feeding through oil. Pricier crude fuels inflation, inflation pushes the Fed to raise rates, and high rates make it costly to hold gold, which pays no interest. Today that effect outweighs safe-haven demand.
When does gold move the most?
Between 08:00 and 12:00 New York time (13:00–17:00 London), when the London and New York sessions overlap. That window concentrates most of the day's volume and the reaction to US data.
How often is this page updated?
Every weekday morning before the New York open, and on Saturday with the weekly close. When a major data release comes out, we add an afternoon update.
