The September 2026 ISM manufacturing PMI came in at 54.5, slightly below the 55.0 expected, but its prices paid index jumped to 77.9 from 71.1. That jump is what is moving markets: expensive energy is now reaching US factories. The dollar is at its high for the year (index at 102.18) and EUR/USD falls to 1.1225.
The ISM was released on Thursday, October 1, at 10:00 New York time (15:00 in London). Weekly jobless claims came out earlier, at 08:30. Prices in this analysis are as of 14:00 New York time.
Today's data: ISM and jobless claims
| Release | Actual | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISM manufacturing PMI (September) | 54.5 | 55.0 | 54.6 |
| Prices paid | 77.9 | 72.3–76.3 | 71.1 |
| New orders | 55.3 | — | 53.7 |
| Production | 56.7 | — | 58.3 |
| Employment | 52.7 | — | 51.2 |
| Backlog of orders | 56.4 | — | 51.8 |
| Supplier deliveries | 59.0 | — | 59.3 |
| Initial jobless claims (week to September 26) | 197,000 | 192,000–200,000 | 198,000 (revised) |
| Continuing claims | 1,701,000 | — | 1,712,000 |
Forecasts for the ISM and for jobless claims differed between surveys, so we show the range.
What does the September ISM manufacturing report say?
It says US factories are still growing, but at a higher cost. The headline index has been above 50 for nine months in a row, the line between expansion and contraction. The details are solid: new orders rise to 55.3, backlogs jump almost five points and employment improves to 52.7.
The problem is prices. The prices paid index rises 6.8 points to 77.9, the highest since May. According to the report itself, it is back to where it was at the start of the Iran war, driven by steel, aluminum and petroleum-based products. Almost half of the negative comments from companies mention volatile prices and tariffs.
For the Fed, that matters more than the 54.5. Yesterday the August PCE eased to 3.0% and cooled bets on another rate hike. Today the ISM is a reminder that energy inflation has not finished feeding into prices. We explain how PCE and CPI fit together in our guide to US inflation.
What about jobs?
They are holding up. Initial claims fall to 197,000, the lowest since July, and continuing claims drop to 1.70 million, roughly a three-year low. There are few layoffs, but also little hiring: a firm labor market with no sign of cracking. We covered last week's release in US jobless claims.
It is the last piece before tomorrow's payrolls (NFP), where about 90,000 jobs are expected.
Why is the dollar rising and EUR/USD falling?
Because today's data adds to what was already pushing the dollar. After the prices paid figure, the 30-year Treasury yield reached 5.69%, and the 10-year touched levels last seen in 2002 before easing to around 5.25%. The pullback came in the afternoon, when Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson said he sees no urgency for another rate hike. The 2-year yield fell more than 13 basis points.
The striking part is that the euro kept falling even as Treasury yields eased. The reason is in Europe:
- Brent is back above $100 after China curbed its fuel exports. The eurozone imports almost all its energy, so expensive oil hurts it more than the US.
- European stocks closed about 1% lower and the UK 30-year gilt yield reached 6%.
- Christine Lagarde's speeches did not give the euro the support it needed.
The result: EUR/USD loses about 70 pips on the day and its daily RSI drops to 18, a very unusual level of oversold.
How the market reacted
| Asset | This morning (07:30 NY) | Now (14:00 NY) | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | 1.1293 | 1.1225 | Loses 1.1250 and trades below the daily lower Bollinger band |
| Dollar index | 101.77 | 102.18 | Breaks above its high for the year (101.80) |
| Gold (XAU/USD) | 4,173 | 4,172 | Holds the morning pivot despite the dollar |
| S&P 500 | — | 7,665 | Falls with bond yields and oil |
Gold is the surprise of the day: with the dollar at its high for the year, it holds the 4,165–4,175 area. The afternoon turn in Treasury yields after Jefferson's comments is supporting it. But it still cannot break the 4,180–4,183 ceiling, the 100-hour moving average and the start of Tuesday's bearish order block.
Key levels and scenarios
EUR/USD
| Level | Price | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Resistance 2 | 1.1279 – 1.1297 | Bearish order block from the ISM, session volume-weighted average price (1.1286) and bottom of the 24-hour value area |
| Resistance 1 | 1.1246 – 1.1262 | Unfilled bearish gap from the afternoon and daily lower Bollinger band (1.1246) |
| Price | 1.1225 | — |
| Support 1 | 1.1215 – 1.1218 | Latest 15-minute low and 1-hour lower Bollinger band |
| Support 2 | 1.1200 | Round number |
- Bearish: losing 1.1215 on a 1-hour close opens 1.1200. Most likely with a strong NFP.
- Bullish: with the daily RSI at 18, a bounce is possible. Reclaiming 1.1262 would allow a return to 1.1279–1.1297.
- Bearish scenario invalidated: 4-hour close above 1.1297.
Gold (XAU/USD)
| Level | Price (USD) | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Resistance 2 | 4,193 – 4,203 | Latest 4-hour and daily swing highs |
| Resistance 1 | 4,180 – 4,183 | 100-hour moving average and start of Tuesday's bearish order block |
| Price | 4,172 | — |
| Support 1 | 4,150 – 4,155 | Highest-volume price of the last 24 hours and bottom of the value area |
| Support 2 | 4,139 – 4,149 | Bullish order block and latest 4-hour swing low |
| Support 3 | 4,111 – 4,130 | Daily lower Bollinger band and latest daily support |
- Bullish: breaking 4,183 on a 1-hour close opens 4,193–4,203.
- Bearish: losing 4,150 would send price back to 4,139–4,149 and, below that, to 4,111–4,130.
- Bullish scenario invalidated: 1-hour close below 4,139.
Levels are updated every morning in EUR/USD today and gold price today.
What comes next
On Friday, October 2, the eurozone flash inflation comes first (05:00 New York, 10:00 London; a jump to 3.6% from 3.2% is expected). Then the September NFP at 08:30 New York (13:30 London), with about 90,000 jobs expected and unemployment at 4.1%. A strong NFP and firm wages, on top of today's prices paid, would revive bets on a Fed hike on October 28. All times are in today's economic calendar and in our guide to trading the NFP.
Frequently asked questions
What is the ISM manufacturing PMI?
It is a monthly survey of purchasing managers at US factories. A reading above 50 means the sector is growing. It is released on the first business day of each month at 10:00 New York time and is one of the first data points for the previous month.
What was the September 2026 ISM manufacturing PMI?
The headline index slipped to 54.5 from 54.6, against the 55.0 the market expected. Prices paid rose to 77.9, the highest since May. It was released on October 1, 2026.
Why does ISM prices paid matter so much?
Because it leads inflation: it measures how much factories pay for their inputs. A jump like today's, from 71.1 to 77.9, suggests consumer prices will stay high, and that makes it more likely the Fed holds or raises rates.
Why didn't gold fall with the dollar at a high for the year?
Because Treasury yields fell in the afternoon, after Philip Jefferson said the Fed is in no hurry to raise rates. Without the push from yields, gold held the 4,165–4,175 area, although it remains below its 4,180–4,183 ceiling.
