The RBA rate hike is here again: the Reserve Bank of Australia raised its cash rate by 25 basis points, from 4.35% to 4.60%, early on Tuesday, September 29 (14:30 in Sydney; 00:30 ET; 05:30 in London). It is the fourth hike of 2026, adds up to 100 basis points this year and leaves rates at their highest in almost 15 years. The decision was unanimous and fully expected. Even so, the Australian dollar barely moved: AUD/USD trades at 0.6997, glued to the 0.70 round number.
The RBA decision in numbers
| Actual | Forecast | Previous | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cash rate | 4.60% | 4.60% | 4.35% |
| Hikes in 2026 | 4 | — | — |
| Vote | Unanimous | — | — |
| Australia monthly CPI (y/y, released today at 21:30 ET) | — | 4.1% | 3.5% |
Why the RBA is raising rates
The Monetary Policy Board's statement gives three reasons:
- Energy: the Middle East conflict "has broadened" and energy prices are "much higher" than the bank assumed in its August forecasts. Oil supply disruptions keep pressure on global and Australian inflation.
- Technology: AI-related demand is driving rapid growth in global prices for technology goods.
- Domestic inflation: recent Australian inflation outcomes came in stronger than expected, even though the labor market has eased as the bank anticipated.
The key line for the coming months: the Board will do "what it considers necessary" to bring inflation back to target, "including increasing the cash rate target further if needed." In other words, the RBA is not calling an end to the cycle.
Why isn't the Australian dollar rising if the RBA is hiking?
Because the hike was already priced in and because, right now, the US dollar carries more weight. Three reasons:
- It was priced in. When the market treats a hike as a done deal, the currency absorbs it before the decision. Only a bigger move (50 basis points) or a more hawkish message would have given an extra push.
- The Fed is hiking too. The US 10-year yield closed Monday at 5.24%, its highest since 2007, and the market prices about a 70% chance of another Federal Reserve hike on October 28. If both banks hike, the AUD's advantage does not grow.
- The AUD is a risk currency. With yields at highs, expensive oil and Asian stocks lower, money prefers the US dollar. The dollar index is at 101.31, with a daily RSI of 70.
On the chart, AUD/USD is below its 20- and 50-day moving averages (both at 0.709) with a daily RSI of 33, close to oversold. However, it holds above the 200-day average (0.6966): the underlying trend has not broken yet.
AUD/USD key levels
| Level | Price | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Resistance 2 | 0.7085 – 0.7090 | 20- and 50-day moving averages |
| Resistance 1 | 0.7016 – 0.7039 | Last 1-hour and 4-hour ceilings |
| Current price | 0.6997 | Glued to the 0.70 round number |
| Support 1 | 0.6978 – 0.6980 | Last 1-hour low, last daily support and lower daily Bollinger band |
| Support 2 | 0.6950 – 0.6966 | 200-day average and round number, one average daily range away (ATR ≈ 44 pips) |
Bearish scenario: if the pair loses 0.6978 on a 4-hour close, the next target is the 0.6950–0.6966 zone. Losing the 200-day average would change the underlying trend. This is most likely if tonight's Australian CPI comes in below 4.1% or if US JOLTS is strong.
Bullish scenario: a CPI above 4.1% would reinforce the case for another RBA hike. If the pair reclaims 0.7016, the target would be 0.7039 and then the 0.7085–0.7090 moving-average zone.
Invalidation: the bearish scenario is in doubt on a 4-hour close above 0.7040.
What it means for gold
The RBA hike confirms something the market already sees everywhere: expensive energy is forcing central banks to raise rates. It happened with the Fed on September 16, the ECB talks about "measured" hikes and now Australia is hiking. For gold, which pays no interest, that is a tough backdrop: it fell nearly 4% on Monday to around $4,115 and today it is bouncing technically to 4,155. Today's levels are in our gold price today page.
What to watch next
| Event | New York (ET) | London |
|---|---|---|
| China official manufacturing PMI (Tuesday) | 21:00 | 02:00 (Wed) |
| Australia monthly CPI (Tuesday) | 21:30 | 02:30 (Wed) |
| US PCE inflation (Wednesday) | 08:30 | 13:30 |
A Chinese PMI above 50.2 would help copper and, with it, the AUD. For the full week, see today's economic calendar.
Frequently asked questions
How much has the RBA raised rates in 2026?
Four times, 100 basis points in total, to 4.60%. It is the highest level in almost 15 years. The bank left the door open to further hikes if inflation does not come down.
Why didn't AUD/USD rise after the decision?
Because the hike was priced in and the US dollar remains strong: the 10-year Treasury pays 5.24% and the market expects another Fed hike in October. When both banks hike at the same time, the Australian dollar's advantage does not grow.
When is the next RBA decision?
The bank meets eight times a year. Before the next one, the key release is tonight's monthly CPI (21:30 ET): if it beats the 4.1% forecast, the market will bet on another hike.
Does the RBA hike affect gold?
Indirectly. One more rate hike somewhere in the world keeps bond yields high and makes gold less attractive. What the Fed does matters much more today; we follow it in the NFP week preview.
