The September 2026 jobs report showed only 29,000 nonfarm payrolls, far below the 84,000–90,000 the market expected, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%. It was released today, Friday, October 2, and all but rules out a Fed rate hike in October. Even so, gold, which spiked to 4,226, is now down at 4,137 because US Treasury yields turned higher again.
The report came out at 8:30 a.m. New York time (13:30 in London). Prices in this analysis are as of 2:00 p.m. New York time.
September NFP: the numbers
| Release | Actual | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nonfarm payrolls (NFP) | 29,000 | 84,000–90,000 | 133,000 (revised from 162,000) |
| Unemployment rate | 4.2% | 4.1% | 4.1% |
| Average hourly earnings (m/m) | +0.1% | +0.3% | +0.3% |
| Average hourly earnings (y/y) | 3.0% | — | — |
| Average workweek | 34.4 hours | — | 34.4 |
| Participation rate | 61.8% | — | — |
Forecasts varied across surveys, so we show the range.
What does the September jobs report say?
It says the US labor market is slowing. The 29,000 jobs are the weakest reading of the year, and revisions removed 60,000 jobs from July and August: July went from +21,000 to −10,000 and August from +162,000 to +133,000.
By sector, only health care (+17,000), construction (+11,000) and manufacturing (+9,000) added jobs. Financial activities lost 7,000.
Two details explain why the market did not read it as a disaster:
- Unemployment rose for a good reason: more people looked for work. Participation stands at 61.8% and there are 7.1 million unemployed.
- Wage growth is cooling: +0.1% on the month (5 cents, to 37.81 USD an hour) and 3.0% on the year. That is good news for the Fed, because wages fuel inflation.
We explain how to read each part of the report in our guide to trading the NFP in forex and gold.
Will the Fed hike rates in October?
It now looks unlikely. The Fed raised rates on September 16 to 3.75%–4.00% and meets again on October 27–28. After the report, rate futures price only a 17% chance of another hike in October, down from 36% a week ago. For December, however, the market still expects a hike.
The Fed has not closed the door. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said this afternoon that the labor market "is steady", that inflation matters more right now, and that both a hike and a pause remain on the table. This week, August PCE eased to 3.0%, but the prices paid index in the ISM manufacturing survey jumped to 77.9.
Why is gold falling if the jobs data was weak?
Because Treasury yields reversed. Right after the release, yields dropped and gold rallied 40 USD in five minutes, from 4,186 to 4,226. But over the morning bonds sold off again: the 10-year yield is back around 5.26% and the 2-year near 4.82%. Gold pays no interest, so with bonds yielding more than 5% it loses appeal.
That reversal took the metal to a low of 4,125 at 11:55 a.m. New York time, 100 USD below the post-NFP high. The dollar index, which had dropped from 102.04 to 101.67, is back at 101.92.
There is also a technical reason: gold reached the 4,217–4,227 zone, the unfilled bearish gap from September 28 we flagged this morning, and sellers showed up there. The bigger trend is still down: on the daily chart, price sits below its 20-day (4,269) and 200-day (4,401) averages. More in why is gold falling?.
How markets reacted
| Asset | Before the release (8:25 a.m. NY) | Extreme after the release | Now (2:00 p.m. NY) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gold (XAU/USD) | 4,186 | 4,226 (8:30) and 4,125 (11:55) | 4,137 |
| EUR/USD | 1.1232 | 1.1285 (10:30) | 1.1254 |
| Dollar index | 102.04 | 101.67 (10:30) | 101.92 |
| S&P 500 | 7,709 | 7,755 (10:40) | 7,719 |
| USD/MXN | 18.29 | 18.11 (9:55) | 18.20 |
| Bitcoin | 86,582 | 87,252 (8:30) | 84,850 |
The pattern is almost the same everywhere: a first move against the dollar, then a reversal. Stocks held up better than the rest, led by tech. The Mexican peso gained almost 1% at one point but has given back half of it.
Key levels and scenarios
Gold (XAU/USD)
| Level | Price (USD) | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Resistance 3 | 4,217 – 4,227 | NFP high (4,226) and September 28 bearish gap |
| Resistance 2 | 4,176 – 4,182 | This morning's pivot and highest-volume price of the last 24 h |
| Resistance 1 | 4,149 – 4,158 | Latest 1-hour high and bottom of the 24-h value area |
| Price | 4,137 | — |
| Support 1 | 4,125 – 4,134 | Day's low and latest 4-hour swing low |
| Support 2 | 4,111 – 4,114 | Latest daily support and lower daily Bollinger Band |
| Support 3 | 4,100 | Round number |
- Bearish: a 1-hour close below 4,125 opens 4,111–4,114 and, below that, 4,100.
- Bullish: reclaiming 4,158 would allow a return to the 4,176–4,182 pivot.
- Bearish scenario invalidated: a 4-hour close above 4,182.
EUR/USD
| Level | Price | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Resistance 2 | 1.1282 – 1.1297 | Thursday's bearish order block and post-NFP high (1.1285) |
| Resistance 1 | 1.1261 – 1.1272 | Unfilled bearish gap from this afternoon and top of the 24-h value area |
| Price | 1.1254 | — |
| Support 1 | 1.1227 – 1.1243 | This morning's bullish order block and bottom of the value area |
| Support 2 | 1.1215 – 1.1222 | Day's low (1.1221), latest 4-hour swing low and lower daily Bollinger Band |
- Bullish: the daily RSI is still at 21, oversold. A break above 1.1272 would open 1.1282–1.1297.
- Bearish: losing 1.1227 would send the pair back to 1.1215–1.1222; below that, 1.1200.
- Bullish scenario invalidated: a 1-hour close below 1.1215.
Levels are updated every morning in gold price today and EUR/USD today.
What comes next
Next week is quieter. Monday, October 5 brings ISM services and Wednesday, October 7 the minutes of the last Fed meeting, which will show how many members wanted to keep hiking. Until then, the market will watch bonds: if the 10-year yield stays above 5.25%, gold will struggle even as the labor market cools. All times are in today's economic calendar.
Frequently asked questions
What was the September 2026 NFP?
The US added 29,000 jobs in September, versus 84,000–90,000 expected. The unemployment rate rose to 4.2% and average hourly earnings rose 0.1%. It was released on Friday, October 2, 2026.
When is the next jobs report?
Usually on the first Friday of each month at 8:30 a.m. New York time. The October report is scheduled for Friday, November 6, 2026; it is worth confirming in the economic calendar that week.
Why did gold rise and then fall on the NFP?
It rose first because weak hiring lowers the odds of a Fed hike. It then fell because US Treasury yields climbed again and the dollar recovered. Gold pays no interest and suffers when bonds yield more.
What does today's NFP mean for the Fed?
It makes a hike on October 28 very unlikely (around 17%, according to futures). But the Fed is still worried about inflation, and the market still expects a hike in December.
