US consumer confidence collapsed in September: the Conference Board index fell 6.7 points to 81.9, its lowest level since 2014, while the market expected a reading close to 89. At the same time, JOLTS job openings dropped to 7.08 million, below forecasts. Both point to a cooling economy. Yet the dollar did not fall: EUR/USD broke below 1.1333 and the dollar index hit new cycle highs. Here is why, and which levels matter now.
Both reports came out at 10:00 a.m. New York time (3:00 p.m. in London).
The data: consumer confidence and JOLTS
| Release | Actual | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer confidence (Conference Board) | 81.9 | ≈ 89 | 88.6 (revised) |
| Present Situation | 109.3 | — | 117.2 |
| Expectations | 63.6 | — | 69.5 |
| JOLTS job openings (August) | 7.08M | 7.11M | 7.34M (revised) |
| Hires (August) | 5.2M | — | 5.2M |
| Quits (August) | 3.1M (rate 1.9%) | — | 3.1M |
| Layoffs (August) | 1.6M (rate 1.0%) | — | 1.6M |
What consumer confidence says
- Everything falls at once. The Present Situation Index lost 7.9 points and the Expectations Index fell for a third straight month to 63.6. The Conference Board notes that an expectations reading below 80 usually signals a recession within the next 12 months.
- Jobs are a bigger worry. Only 23.6% of households say jobs are "plentiful" and 21.9% say they are hard to get. The gap narrows to +1.7 points, the lowest in years.
- So is inflation. Households expect 6.1% inflation over the next 12 months (5.1% median, up 0.3 points from August), and 68.4% believe interest rates will rise.
The survey closed on September 23, after the Fed's rate hike and with gasoline still expensive.
What JOLTS says
Openings fell by 256,000 to 7.08 million, the lowest level since March, with the openings rate at 4.3%. The rest of the report barely moved: hires held at 5.2 million, quits at 3.1 million and layoffs at 1.6 million. In other words, companies are looking for fewer people, but they are not firing. The biggest drop in openings came in professional and business services (−119,000).
Why is the dollar rising if the data is weak?
At another time, a confidence drop like this would have sunk the dollar by pointing to a softer Fed. Today three things weigh more:
- Inflation rules. Consumers themselves expect 6.1% inflation. With energy expensive, the Fed cannot react to a sentiment survey the way it would with prices under control.
- The Fed keeps leaning toward hikes. After the data, Fed Governor Michael Barr said inflation risks have increased, labor market risks have receded and policy needs to be "recalibrated." Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee warned that five and a half years above target is "playing with fire." Markets still price roughly a 70% chance of a hike on October 28.
- Yields stay high. The 10-year Treasury yield approached 5.27% and the 30-year touched 5.59%, its highest intraday level since 2004. Only short-dated yields eased. As long as the dollar offers the highest return, money stays put.
One important nuance: confidence is falling because households fear losing purchasing power and jobs, but JOLTS shows layoffs are not rising. For the Fed, that is a worried consumer, not a breaking economy.
How the market reacted
| Asset | This morning (7:20 a.m. ET) | Now (2:00 p.m. ET) | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | 1.1348 | 1.1325 (1.1314 in the last hour) | Breaks 1.1333 and tests the 1.1314–1.1324 zone |
| Dollar index | 101.31 | 101.48 (101.57 in the last hour) | New cycle high |
| Gold (XAU/USD) | 4,155 | 4,158 | Holds at the lower daily Bollinger Band |
| S&P 500 | — | 7,669 | Slightly lower on yields |
| USD/MXN | — | 18.10 | The Mexican peso struggles: daily RSI at 83 |
| USD/COP | 3,364 | 3,346 | The Colombian peso recovers slightly ahead of its central bank |
Gold is the most interesting case: yields and the dollar pressure it, but falling oil (after the US offered to release 40 million barrels from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve) and recession fears give it some support. That is why it is stuck in a narrow range after falling nearly 4% on Monday. We cover it in why gold is falling.
Key levels and scenarios
EUR/USD
| Level | Price | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Resistance 2 | 1.1348 | Session average price (VWAP) |
| Resistance 1 | 1.1338 – 1.1346 | Bearish order block from 10:00 a.m. ET |
| Price | 1.1325 | — |
| Support 1 | 1.1309 | Lower daily Bollinger Band |
| Support 2 | 1.1300 | Round number |
- Bearish: an hourly close below 1.1309 opens 1.1300 and, if PCE comes in hot, lower levels.
- Bullish: the pair is deeply oversold (daily RSI 24, stochastic 7). Reclaiming 1.1346 on a 4-hour close would allow a bounce toward 1.1366–1.1400.
- Bearish scenario invalidated: a daily close above 1.1366, the top of the 24-hour value area.
Gold (XAU/USD)
| Level | Price | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Resistance 2 | 4,182 – 4,194 | Unfilled bearish gap from Monday |
| Resistance 1 | 4,166 – 4,179 | First bearish gap and latest daily high |
| Price | 4,158 | — |
| Support 1 | 4,144 | Session average price |
| Support 2 | 4,134 – 4,139 | Overnight bullish gap and highest-volume price |
| Support 3 | 4,099 | Latest daily chart support |
- Bullish: a 4-hour close above 4,179 would target 4,194 and 4,200.
- Bearish: losing 4,134 would send price back to 4,099, Monday's low.
- Bullish scenario invalidated: a daily close below 4,099.
Daily levels are updated every morning in EUR/USD today and gold price today.
What comes next
The week stays busy. On Wednesday, ADP private payrolls (8:15 a.m. ET) and PCE inflation (8:30 a.m. ET), the price gauge the Fed watches most. On Thursday, the ISM manufacturing index. And on Friday, nonfarm payrolls, with a forecast of 100,000 jobs. If PCE confirms energy pressure, the drop in confidence will take a back seat. All times are in today's economic calendar and in our NFP week preview.
Frequently asked questions
What is the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index?
It is a monthly survey of US households on how they see the economy, jobs and their income, now and six months ahead. It is released on the last Tuesday of each month at 10:00 a.m. New York time. It matters because consumer spending is about two-thirds of the US economy.
Why did the dollar rise with consumer confidence so low?
Because the market gives more weight to inflation and the Fed than to household sentiment. Consumers expect 6.1% inflation, several Fed officials are calling for more hikes and Treasury yields are at their highest since 2007. As long as the Fed has to raise rates, the dollar keeps its edge.
Does JOLTS at 7.08 million point to a weak NFP?
Partly. Fewer openings mean companies are hiring with less urgency, and the NFP forecast is already low (100,000). But layoffs are not rising, so it does not point to job destruction. We explain it in our guide to trading NFP in forex and gold.
Which release could change the trend this week?
Wednesday's PCE at 8:30 a.m. New York time. A reading below forecast (+0.4% month on month) would be the first reason in days for the euro and gold to bounce strongly.
